Wednesday, February 27, 2013

The Real Estate Report February 27, 2013





Sequestration

Only in America would we desecrate the English language to find a word to describe what our government is up to. Yes, March 1 is the official sequestration date. But don't expect the government to declare the next Federal Holiday to be "Sequestration Day." Here are a couple of points about this word. First of all, the word sequestration means confiscation or seizure of assets. No one is proposing a seizure of assets here. What we are talking about is automatic and severe budget cuts. In this case we will defer to the Congressional Research Service which has rewritten the dictionary to expand the definition to mean... the permanent cancellation of budgetary resources by a uniform percentage. Moreover, this uniform percentage reduction is applied to all programs, projects, and activities within a budget account.

Okay, now that we know what it means, the questions that follow are... will it happen and if it does happen, what affect may it have upon our lives and especially the economy? There have been many articles written regarding what could happen if the budget is cut by approximately 10% overnight. These cuts include all discretionary spending from jobless benefits to food inspections to defense. Not all cuts would happen immediately. For example, if there are furloughs of Federal workers, we have read that the furloughs may take 30 days or more to implement. That gives Congress and the Administration more time to come up with a solution. And you know what they do when they have extra time? Usually nothing. There is no doubt that dropping hundreds of millions of dollars out of the budget will take some steam out of the economy this year. This could lead to lower rates and oil prices. We just don't think that the cuts will be allowed to take hold all year. With a compromise of some kind, there will be some cuts, but how much remains to be seen.


The economic downturn that ended a few years ago may have soured many consumers on making significant financial decisions. But as the effects of the recession fade, many may be more interested in homeownership. That seems particularly true of younger consumers who may not have been in a position to buy years ago. Today, the vast majority of consumers between the ages of 25 and 44, comprising both millennials and those in Generation X, say that homeownership is at least somewhat important to them, according to a new survey from Prudential Real Estate. In all, 96 percent of all consumers feel this way. But 77 percent of those aged 25 to 34, and 78 percent of people between 35 and 44, say it's "very important." Further, 74 percent say that the current levels of affordability lent by historically low interest rates mean that now is a great time for them to buy a home. "Millennials and Generation X -- about 85 million people strong -- face a unique opportunity in U.S. housing," said Earl Lee, chief executive officer at HSF Affiliates LLC and president of Prudential Real Estate. "They are generally optimistic about homeownership and, by nature, share a strong sense of community. As important, many were not impacted by the real estate downturn and are looking at today's buying opportunities with keen interest." In addition, 63 percent of those polled say they currently have a favorable view of the real estate market in general, and those in the younger generations were typically more enthusiastic about it than their older counterparts, the report said. Source: AOL Real Estate

A large majority of people in that field plan to buy as many or more properties in the next 12 months to rent out or sell for profit. That’s one of the findings of a study released recently that attempted to measure the impact people involved in income or speculative real estate are having on the housing market. The survey, sponsored by BiggerPockets.com, the nation’s leading social Web site for real estate investors, and Memphis Invest, one of the largest providers of single-family rentals — shows that 65 percent of investors plan to buy a lot more homes during the next 12 months. The report points out that investors played a fairly substantial role in the housing recovery. The housing crisis pushed nearly 4 million foreclosures onto the open market, devastating home values. This and the coinciding financial crisis squashed homebuyers’ confidence and their ability to buy. At that time, real estate investors began buying up the foreclosures when few other people could enter the market. They bought up so many properties that they established single-family rentals as a $100 billion business. In fact, the report says that single-family rentals now outnumber apartment units. They are also renovating the homes they buy and spending an average of $7,500 per home. That totals more than $9.2 billion every year in construction-related spending, according to the report. This is critical business for an industry that was hit hard by the recession. In 2008, Congress approved the Neighborhood Stabilization Program to provide funds to municipalities and not-for-profit organizations to repair damage to foreclosed homes. Up to this point, they have spent a total of $7 billion of tax payer money. Real estate investors are doing more than this every year with their own money or money that they borrow. Surprisingly, the report finds that only one in four real estate investors are cash buyers. In fact, slightly more than half make down payments and finance the rest of the purchase amount. Source: The Washington Post

Consumers need to be extra vigilant about checking for any errors on their credit reports, according to the Federal Trade Commission. One in four Americans report they’ve found an error on their credit report, according to a study conducted by the FTC, which analyzed 1,001 consumers’ credit reports from the three major agencies, Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion. Researchers helped the consumers spot potential errors on their reports. Five percent of the consumers found such large errors on their report that they could have gotten stuck paying more for home loans or other financial products, if they hadn’t taken steps to correct it before applying, according to the study. Twenty percent of the credit reports studied that were found to have errors in it were ultimately corrected after the consumer took steps to dispute it, which resulted in about 10 percent of consumers receiving a higher credit score, according to the study. Consumers are entitled to receive a free copy of their credit report each year from the three reporting agencies. Source: The Associated Press

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

February 20, 2013 Real Estate Report

February 20, 2013


 
Let The Duel Begin -- Again

It has been a few weeks since the politicians have rattled their sabers at each other and therefore we are due for increased rhetoric. With the State of the Union Address and response behind us, we now approach the deadline to head off draconian budget cuts. By now the markets may be immune to deadlines set by politicians. With the negotiations regarding the fiscal cliff fizzling out and the big fight focused upon raising the debt limit postponed quietly, many are again expecting the same result. We know that Congress may surprise us and the surprise could go in two directions. The first direction would result in both parties digging in their heels as the budget cuts go into effect. The second direction would be actual negotiations to attack the deficit with a balanced plan that would result in more reasonable cuts and a long-term budget plan.

In reality, most market observers are expecting more action to kick the can down the road -- again. Meanwhile, we are closing in on another employment report as we start to get more readings as to the state of the economy in 2013. This data will follow readings on the real estate market to be released this week. There was a lot of optimism during January as the stock market roared and interest rates and oil prices climbed. This trend only continues if real estate continues to gain momentum and we continue to create jobs at a pace to bring down the stubborn unemployment rate. As we have contended previously, the rebound in real estate is a requirement of increased job creation. The numbers released last week show that Europe's recession is actually deepening. This means that it is imperative for the United States to be building momentum that will help lift the rest of the world. As the world's largest economy, we led the world into recession some five years ago. Now we need to show leadership in recovery.
Underwater borrowers who have stayed current with their housing payments now may be able to give up their properties and get their debts erased, according to new guidelines issued by housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Non-delinquent borrowers who have Fannie and Freddie-backed loans and who can document a hardship, such as an illness, job change, or other situation that requires they must move can apply for a deed-in-lieu transaction. Eligible borrowers also must have a 55 percent debt-to-income ratio. Servicers will be required to confirm that the property has been left in good condition. Borrowers who are eligible will have the debt remaining between the property’s value and size of home loan erased. “The goal is to make sure people who have suffered a hardship have the appropriate options to prevent foreclosure,” says Andrew Wilson, spokesman for Fannie Mae. Borrowers may still be required some repayment, however, if the borrower has the means to do so. “Home owners applying for deed-in-lieu transactions may be asked to make cash contributions of up to 20 percent of their financial reserves, excluding retirement accounts,” Bloomberg reports about the guidelines. “Or, they may be asked to sign a promissory note for future no-interest repayments. The amount and terms can be negotiated.” Fannie and Freddie’s new eligibility for deed-in-lieu of transactions has been met with some criticism, particularly at a time with the government-sponsored enterprises are still underwater themselves from steep losses the last few years. But some argue that past programs tended to penalize borrowers on the brink of foreclosure who kept making their payments, says Julia Gordon, director of housing finance and policy at the Center for American Progress. Mortgage servicers in some cases were even advising borrowers to stop making their housing payment so that they could qualify for more assistance. “Fannie and Freddie are finally recognizing that some people are stuck in their homes,” Gordon told Bloomberg. “There are a lot of families who need to move who can’t do it if they’re going to have debt hanging over their heads. There’s no winner when someone is forced to default on their home loan -- not the investor, not the home owner, and certainly not the neighborhood.” Source: Bloomberg
Freddie Mac's fourth quarter refinance analysis showing homeowners who refinance continue to strengthen their fiscal house, as 84 percent of homeowners who refinanced their first-lien home loan either maintained about the same loan amount or lowered their principal balance by paying-in additional money at the closing table; just shy of the record 85 percent during the fourth quarter of 2011. Of these borrowers, 46 percent maintained about the same loan amount, and 39 percent of refinancing homeowners reduced their principal balance. "On average, borrowers who refinanced reduced their interest rate by about 1.8 percentage points, mark not seen for 27 years," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "On a $200,000 loan, that translates into saving about $3,600 in interest during the next 12 months. Fixed-rate rates on home loan hit new lows during December, with 30-year product averaging 3.4 percent and 15-year averaging 2.7 percent that month, according to our Primary Mortgage Market Survey." Source: Freddie Mac

If you’re one of the millions of homeowners and renters who work or run a business from the place you live, here’s some good news on taxes: The Internal Revenue Service wants to make it easier for you to file for deductions on the business-related use of your home. Rather than the complicated 43-line form you now have to fill out to claim a write-off — the instructions alone take up four pages of text and involve computations ranging from depreciation to utility bill expense allocations — the IRS has come up with a much simpler option: what it calls a “safe harbor” method that allows you to measure the square footage of your business space and apply for a deduction. The move comes at a time when the use of homes for work is soaring, thanks to technologies such as high-speed Internet and Skype. Last October, the Census Bureau estimated that as of 2010, 13.4 million Americans were making some type of business use of their homes and that home businesses employed nearly 10 percent of all workers. During the same year, the IRS says 3.4 million taxpayers filed for the home office deduction. Kristie Arslan, president and chief executive of the National Association for the Self-Employed, says, that the IRS rules for home offices have been “cumbersome and time-consuming. They also worried that they could be exposed to an audit by the IRS if they made mistakes in filing." The new IRS option, which will be available for 2013 and beyond, allows owners and employees who work from home to deduct $5 per square foot of home office space per year, up to a maximum allowable space of 300 square feet. The write-off is capped at $1,500 per year, but the hassle factor is negligible. Here’s how it works. The Internal Revenue Code permits you to deduct expenses for a home office that is used “exclusively” and on a “regular basis” as your principal place of business “for any trade or business,” or as a place to meet with clients or customers. Provided you qualify on these threshold tests, the code allows you to deduct home loan interest, property taxes, rent, utilities, hazard insurance and other expenses based on the percentage of the total space of the home that is attributable to your business use. Though this method can produce sizable deductions, critics have long argued that the computations for some of the allowable items — depreciation on the house you own is one — can be tricky and require significant record-keeping and time expenditures to get it exactly right. In addition, the IRS has acknowledged that the presence of a home office deduction on a taxpayer’s filing may increase that taxpayer’s potential for being selected for audit. The new streamlined approach essentially boils everything down to just one measurement: How much square footage that qualifies for business-purpose treatment are you using? Multiply that number by $5 per square foot and you’ve got your deduction amount. As long as this does not exceed $1,500, you can use the new short form write-off. If the total is more than $1,500, you can use the more complicated option. Source: Ken Harney, The National Housing

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Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Take Advantage Of Your Purchasing Power...


Take Advantage of Your Purchasing Power
 
Last year is a record-breaker when it comes to housing affordability, according to the National Association of Realtors [NAR]. Interest rates and home prices dropped dramatically, offsetting lower median incomes, which are the three factors considered in determining the affordability index.

But that's not expected to last; as interest rates creep up, and housing prices as well, we may not see an index this high for many years. Have you taken advantage of this perfect storm of factors to purchase a new property?

Whether you are looking at buying a larger or smaller home, investing in real estate, or even purchasing a second or retirement home, it's a great time to make your move, before the market changes and your purchasing power begins to drop.

Home Prices
Today's housing prices are astonishingly low. According to real estate website Trulia, buying a home in 2012 was even cheaper than renting in the largest U.S. cities. Prices did make modest gains over the course of the year, however, and though they remain very favorable, experts predict they will continue to slowly rise as the market improves. By acting now you can take advantage of prices that are still extremely low, maximizing your purchasing power.

Interest Rates
Not only are housing prices at historic lows, but interest rates have been, too. Rates for 30-year fixed loans have been in the 3-4% over the last several months. This is significantly lower than the historic average. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate loans over the last four decades has been 8.9 percent.

With rates this low, the smart buyer makes a move. The market can't sustain these numbers for long, and won't need to as it improves. Economists from the New York Federal Reserve have already stated that they don't expect mortgage rates to sink much lower than they have already.

Affordability and Purchasing Power
The affordability of housing during the first quarter of 2012 hit its highest level in the 20 years that the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo have been tracking it in their joint Housing Opportunity Index (HOI). The combination of low rates and low housing prices has created an unprecedented opportunity for homebuyers to maximize their purchasing power. But the HOI did begin to drop over the course of 2012. Do you want to risk it lowering even more in 2013?

Every partial percentage point that rates rise will significantly lower your purchasing power. If you'd like to see some surprising numbers, let's set up a no-obligation meeting so I can show you the difference in purchasing power — and monthly payments — between 3.5% and 4%. You may find the motivation to begin the homebuying process right away!

Capitalize on the Current Market
Buying a home just isn't going to get much cheaper. You know your purchasing power is at its peak; delaying for even a few months can reduce the amount of home you can afford and raise the price you'll pay. If you are ready to capitalize on the current market's perfect storm of low rates plus low home prices, please contact me to set up a meeting to look at your options, review costs, and ensure you're maximizing your purchasing power.
 
Jennifer Odom
Mortgage Loan Consultant
 
 
 

 
 

Thursday, February 7, 2013

February 6, 2013 Real Estate Report





February 6, 2013


The Numbers Don't Lie

This week the markets were focused upon the all important employment report. While the number can be volatile from month-to-month, the dip in first time unemployment claims during the previous two weeks made the markets more optimistic regarding January's numbers. They came in at a lackluster 157,000 jobs created for the month with an unemployment rate of 7.9%. These numbers were worse than expectations; however, a revision of previous data added over 300,000 new jobs to the data previously released in 2012. The numbers don't lie. There have been additional reports released recently that show the economy is growing more quickly. For example, the December orders for durable goods were much higher than expected. Preliminary numbers indicated that the growth of the economy stalled in the fourth quarter, but this pause was attributed to temporary factors such as the weather according to commentary by the Federal Reserve released after the Fed meeting ended on Wednesday.

As we have pointed out in the past, a growing economy is great news. But it also means that we can expect higher prices to join the party. It is not a coincidence that home prices rose last year. More recently, oil prices are up around ten percent and interest rates have begun creeping up as well. All along we have warned that the Federal Reserve Board has no power to keep rates low in a stronger economy. Nor would they want to. There was more drama regarding the Fed meeting this week for this very reason and rates eased a bit when the Fed indicated they are continuing their support for low rates. Meanwhile, it is expected that those who have been on the sidelines may very well recognize that this is their last chance to purchase a home which is on sale. Rates and home prices are up slightly, but they are currently still a bargain. If the numbers keep rolling in like they have, this fact may no longer be the case.




The bursting of the housing bubble plunged the economy into a recession from which it has yet to fully recover. But economists say this could finally be the year that housing lifts us out of the doldrums. Just over half of economists surveyed by CNNMoney identified a housing recovery as the primary driver of economic growth this year. The rest were split fairly evenly between consumer spending, increased domestic energy production and stimulus from the Federal Reserve as major growth drivers. "Homebuilding activity will likely remain the strongest growing component of the economy in 2013," said Keith Hembre, chief economist of Nuveen Asset Management. "After several years of excess supply, demand and supply conditions are now in much better balance." Home sales rebounded to the strongest level in five years in 2012, as home building bounced back to levels not seen since early in the recession. Near record low rates, rising home prices and a drop in foreclosures have combined to bring buyers back to the market. The economists surveyed also forecast that there will be just under 1 million housing starts this year -- roughly matching the 28% rise in home building in 2012. Moody's Analytics is forecasting much stronger growth -- a 50% rise both this year and next year, which it estimates will create more than 1 million new jobs. "There's a lot of pent-up demand for housing, and very little supply," said Celia Chen, housing economist for Moody's Analytics. "As demand continues to improve, home builders have nothing to sell. They'll have to build." She said that growth in building will mean adding not just construction jobs, but also manufacturing jobs building the appliances and furniture needed in the new homes, which in turn drives overall consumption higher. And economists say the tight supply and renewed demand for housing should lead to higher home values -- about a 3.7% increase according to the survey. "One of the most significant indirect effects from the housing recovery is the 'wealth effect' on consumers due to the recovery in home prices," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist of Deutsche Bank, who said better home values can affect both consumer psychology on spending as well as their actual finances. "Even small moves in home prices can have large effects on consumption, because housing comprises such a significant share of household assets," he said. Source: CNN/Money

Remodeling sentiment rose to the highest level in five years, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Remodeling Market Index (RMI) for the fourth quarter of 2011. The RMI increased to 46.6 in the fourth quarter from 41.7 in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the RMI component measuring current market conditions rose to 48.4 from 43.0 in the previous quarter. The RMI component measuring future indicators of remodeling business was also positive, increasing to 44.8 from 40.4 in the previous quarter. An RMI below 50 indicates that more remodelers report market activity is lower (compared to the prior quarter) than report it is higher. The overall RMI averages ratings of current remodeling activity with indicators of future activity. “As more consumers remain in their homes rather than move in this economy, remodelers benefited from a gradual increase in home improvement activity, taking us to a five-year high,” said NAHB Remodelers Chairman Bob Peterson, CGR, CAPS, CGP, a remodeler from Ft. Collins, Colo. “2011 ended on a strong note for the remodeling industry.” Current market conditions improved significantly in all four regions over the third quarter of 2011. The RMI reported higher market activity in two important categories: major additions 52.3 (from 45.2) and minor additions 50.1 (from 45.7). Future market indicators in each region also experienced gains from the previous quarter. Two of the indices reported a level over 50: calls for bids at 50.7 (from 45.4) and appointments for proposals at 50.1 (from 43.3), while work committed for the next three months only rose to 31.5 (from 29.9). “With several key components above 50, the latest RMI provides reason for guarded optimism going forward,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “The residential remodeling market has been improving gradually, mirroring the trend in other segments of the housing market. We expect a modest growth in remodeling activity to continue throughout 2013.” Source: NAHB


Rents were up for the third consecutive year in 2012 and are forecasted to rise again this year, according to MPF Research. Apartment rents increased 3 percent in 2012, a slower pace than in 2011 where rents rose 4.8 percent. The historical norm for the past two decades in rental increases is 2.5 percent per year. According to MPF, many property owners weren’t as aggressive in asking for higher rents in 2012 as they were in recent years. "Many on the operations side of the apartment industry have focused on sustaining their very tight occupancy levels during a period when job growth and new household formation have been fairly sluggish at the same time that renter movement has begun to inch up from the unusually low levels experienced in the previous few years," says Greg Willet, MPF Research vice president. Source: Realty Times


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